In this article

Heat Pump Plus EV: The Combined Home Energy Cost and Savings (2026)

A home rips out its gas boiler, drops the petrol car, and plugs both heating and driving into the same electricity meter. The meter now spins for everything — and yet, done right, the all-in energy bill falls by hundreds of pounds a year. Done wrong, on the wrong tariff, the same household pays more than it needed to. This is where the line sits in 2026.

By Petra Halvorsen, Energy & E-Mobility Cost Analyst · Published 17 June 2026 · Figures current to Q2 2026


Electrifying a house used to be two separate decisions made years apart: maybe a heat pump when the boiler dies, maybe an electric car when the lease is up. In 2026 a growing number of UK homes are doing both, and the question they ask is not answered by either the heat-pump guides or the EV guides on their own. It is: what happens to the bill when one electricity meter has to feed the boiler's old job and the petrol pump's old job at once?

The short answer is that the home roughly doubles its electricity demand and still comes out ahead — but the size of the win is decided almost entirely by two things the salesperson rarely dwells on: how efficiently the heat pump actually runs, and which tariff the household lands on. Get both right and a heat-pump-and-EV home runs on about £1,700 of energy a year, against roughly £3,200 for the gas-and-petrol home it replaced. Get them wrong and most of that saving evaporates. This piece pulls the two new loads apart, prices a kWh of heat against a kWh of petrol-equivalent driving, and builds the combined bill from sourced unit prices.

The combined number, up front

A typical UK home with both a heat pump and an EV uses about 9,100 kWh of electricity a year, against roughly 2,700 kWh for the same home before it electrified — the heat pump and the car add around 6,400 kWh between them [11][12][13].

On the July 2026 price cap of 26.11p per kWh that combined electricity is worth about £2,380 plus standing charges, but almost no engaged household pays the flat rate for it. On a smart EV tariff the same kilowatt-hours cost closer to £1,500, because the two biggest new loads — overnight car charging and overnight heat-pump pre-heating — are exactly the loads you can shift into a cheap window.

Set against what it replaces, the maths is favourable but not magic. The home that ran a gas boiler and a petrol car spent roughly £3,200 a year on energy in 2026 — about £1,000 on gas, £900 on baseline electricity, and £1,300 on petrol.

The fully-electrified version of that home lands between about £1,250 (with solar and a smart tariff) and £2,580 (heat pump and EV left on the dumb flat tariff). The spread inside that range — more than £1,300 a year — is the entire point of this article, and none of it is about the hardware. It is about efficiency and tariff.

Annual home energy bill: old vs electrified, by tariff (2026, £) (£/year (energy))
Gas boiler + petrol car3200Heat pump + EV, flat cap tariff2580Heat pump + EV, Cosy Octopus2300Heat pump + EV, Intelligent Octopus Go1700Heat pump + EV + 4kW solar, smart tariff1250
The same household: gas boiler + petrol car, versus heat pump + EV on three tariff strategies, versus adding solar. Our calculation from the cited unit prices [1][3][5]; includes electricity standing charge, excludes capital cost.

The two new loads: what a heat pump and an EV each draw

A heat pump adds about 3,900 kWh a year and an EV about 2,500 kWh, so together they more than treble a typical home's electricity demand. The heat pump is the larger and lumpier of the two. A typical 3-bed UK home needs around 11,000 kWh of heat a year for space heating and hot water [11]; a heat pump running at a real-world seasonal efficiency (SPF) of 2.8 turns that into roughly 3,900 kWh of electricity. The car is smaller and steadier: 9,000 miles a year at 3.6 miles per kWh is about 2,500 kWh, and unlike heat it falls in predictable overnight chunks you control to the minute.

What each load adds to a home's annual electricity use (2026, kWh) (kWh/year)
Baseline home (lights, appliances)2700+ Heat pump (heat & hot water)3900+ Electric car (9,000 mi)2500Combined total9100
A heat pump and an EV roughly double a typical home's electricity demand. Our calculation; heat at SPF 2.8 on 11,000 kWh demand [11], EV at 3.6 mi/kWh over 9,000 miles [12], baseline per Ofgem TDCV [13].

The shapes matter as much as the totals. EV demand is the easiest load on the grid to move — a single nightly session that a smart tariff can park in any cheap window. Heat-pump demand is harder, because heat is needed when it is cold, which is also when the heat pump is least efficient and the grid is most stressed. That asymmetry is the root of the "which tariff" problem later in this piece: the car wants to charge for six hours at 3am, while the heat pump wants to sip power all day, hardest in the early-evening cold. One tariff cannot perfectly flatter both.

For scale against the rest of the home, 9,100 kWh is roughly three to four times Ofgem's typical-consumption electricity figure of 2,700 kWh [13]. A household electrifying both heat and transport should expect its electricity bill, in isolation, to triple — while its gas bill goes to zero and its petrol spend goes to zero. The all-in figure is what falls; the electricity line alone looks alarming if you read it without the others.

Why the heat pump is the swing factor

The heat pump decides whether electrification saves money, because electricity costs about 3.6 times as much as gas per unit at the 2026 cap, and only the heat pump's efficiency closes that gap.

At the July 2026 price cap, electricity is 26.11p per kWh and gas is 7.33p per kWh [1]. A gas boiler at 90% efficiency therefore delivers a kWh of heat for about 8.1p. A heat pump only beats that if it can produce more than 3.2 units of heat per unit of electricity. On a flat electricity tariff at a real-world SPF of 2.8, it produces heat at about 9.3p per kWh — fractionally more than gas.
Cost of one kilowatt-hour of heat, 2026 (pence) (p/kWh of heat)
Heat pump on flat cap (26.11p)9.3Gas boiler (7.33p, 90% eff)8.1Heat pump, good install SPF 4.06.5Heat pump on Cosy off-peak (14.5p)5.2Heat pump on Go overnight (7p)2.5
A gas boiler and a heat pump on a flat electricity tariff are near parity; off-peak power is what makes the heat pump dramatically cheaper. Our calculation: gas 7.33p/0.90; heat pump SPF 2.8 on each electricity rate [1][3][5][9].

The uncomfortable arithmetic is this: a heat pump on the standard variable tariff is, at best, line-ball with a modern gas boiler on running cost. The Energy Saving Trust's own comparison puts a typical air-source heat pump at roughly £840 a year for heating against about £835 for a gas boiler at 2026 cap prices — near parity [2]. The savings the brochures promise come from two levers stacked on top of the bare hardware: a higher efficiency, and a cheaper electricity rate.

Efficiency is the first lever, and it is bigger than most buyers realise. UK field data is blunt about the gap between datasheet and reality: two government-linked analyses of metered installations put the median real-world SPF of air-source heat pumps at about 2.7 to 2.8, roughly a third below the SCOP figures quoted on datasheets [9][14].

The Electrification of Heat demonstration, which monitored 742 air-source units, recorded a median coefficient of performance of 2.44 even on cold days — proof the technology works in a British winter, but also a reminder that a badly commissioned system loses a quarter of its efficiency to poor design [10]. A heat pump run at SPF 4.0, which good installers reach with weather compensation and correctly sized radiators, makes heat for about 6.5p per kWh on the flat tariff — comfortably under gas. The same pump at 2.4 does not. The install quality, not the badge on the box, sets that number.

The tariff trap: you usually optimise for one

The cheaper-rate lever is where heat-pump-and-EV homes hit a problem the single-device homes never face: the best EV tariff and the best heat-pump tariff are different tariffs, and you generally have to pick one. The second lever — a cheaper electricity rate — is decisive, because it is what turns a heat pump from line-ball-with-gas into genuinely cheap. A heat pump at SPF 2.8 on a 7p overnight rate makes heat for about 2.5p per kWh, a third of the gas price [1][5]. The catch is that the 7p rate belongs to an EV tariff.

The UK's cheapest off-peak rate, Octopus's Intelligent Octopus Go, gives about 7p per kWh across a roughly six-hour smart-controlled overnight window — designed around a car, not a boiler [5]. The leading heat-pump tariff, Cosy Octopus, instead spreads three cheaper windows through the day (04:00–07:00, 13:00–16:00, 22:00–00:00) at about 14.5p, with a steep day rate near 33p and an early-evening peak near 52p [3][4]. The logic is sound for a heat pump, which wants to top up the house with warmth in the afternoon before the evening cold. But that structure punishes the two things an EV home also does: charge a car, and run a normal baseline of lights and appliances at the 33p day rate.

Which smart tariff for a heat-pump-and-EV home? (UK, Q2 2026)
TariffOff-peak rateWindowDay rateBest forHeat-pump + EV verdict
Intelligent Octopus Go7p/kWh~6h overnight, smart-controlled≈25pEV chargingOften the cheapest overall for a combined home: cheapest off-peak rate plus a day rate near the cap, and the heat pump can pre-heat in the window
Cosy Octopus≈14.5p/kWh8h (04–07, 13–16, 22–00)≈33.3pHeat pumpsThree daily cheap windows suit a heat pump that needs daytime heat, but the high day/peak rate punishes baseline and EV load
Octopus AgileHalf-hourly, tracks wholesaleVaries daily (can go negative)VariesEngaged optimisersBest ceiling if you actively shift load; exposed to winter price spikes, which is when a heat pump draws most
Standard variable (price cap)None (flat 26.11p)26.11pNo smart devicesSimplest and worst: a heat pump on a flat tariff is barely cheaper than gas, and the EV loses its biggest saving
Published April–June 2026 rates; regional and subject to change [3][4][5]. A household with both devices generally has to optimise for one. 'Best for' is our reading of the rate structure against each load.

For most heat-pump-and-EV households the counter-intuitive answer in 2026 is the EV tariff, not the heat-pump one. Intelligent Octopus Go pairs the market's cheapest off-peak rate with a day rate that sits close to the price cap, where Cosy's day rate runs well above it. A heat pump can still pre-heat the home during the cheap overnight window, and the car charges at 7p; the baseline load is not stung by a 33p day rate. The exception is a heat-heavy, poorly-insulated home that genuinely needs to run the pump hard through the afternoon — there, Cosy's daytime window can win. The only way to be sure is to model your own load split, but the default assumption that "heat pump means heat-pump tariff" costs many combined homes money.

A worked combined bill, four ways

The same household lands anywhere between about £1,250 and £2,580 a year depending only on tariff and solar — a £1,300 spread on identical hardware. Here is the full build, using the energy split from earlier (2,700 kWh baseline, 3,900 kWh heat, 2,500 kWh car) and the published 2026 rates. Every figure is our own calculation; the assumptions about how the load splits across the day are stated and are the main source of uncertainty.

Scenario How the load is priced Annual energy cost
Gas boiler + petrol car (the old home) Gas 12,200 kWh @ 7.33p + base elec 2,700 kWh @ 26.11p + petrol 9,000 mi @ 45 mpg, £1.40/l, plus standing charges ≈ £3,200
Heat pump + EV, flat cap tariff All 9,100 kWh @ 26.11p + electricity standing charge ≈ £2,580
Heat pump + EV, Cosy Octopus Car and most heat in 14.5p windows; baseline at 33p day rate ≈ £2,300
Heat pump + EV, Intelligent Octopus Go Car at 7p; heat pump pre-heats overnight at 7p, rest at ~25p day ≈ £1,700
Heat pump + EV + 4kW solar, smart tariff As above, minus ~£450 of self-consumed and exported solar ≈ £1,250

Our calculation from the cited unit prices [1][3][5]; standing charge included, capital cost excluded. The load-split assumptions are illustrative; a metered home will differ.

The headline is that even the worst electrified case beats the gas-and-petrol home by about £600 a year, and the best case — short of solar — roughly halves the bill it started from. The journey from £2,580 to £1,700 costs nothing in hardware. It is a tariff switch and the discipline to let a smart system shift the car and some of the heat into the cheap window. That £880 is the single largest free saving available to a combined home, and it is the one most households leave on the table by staying on the standard variable tariff.

Solar turns a combined home into its best customer

Solar pays back far faster on a heat-pump-and-EV home than on an ordinary one, because two large flexible loads can soak up the midday surplus that would otherwise export for pennies. The economics of rooftop solar in 2026 hinge on the gap between what you pay to import (about 26p) and what you earn to export — Octopus Outgoing pays a leading 15p, dropping to 12p from March 2026, and many tariffs pay only 4–6p [20][21]. Every kWh a household consumes itself instead of exporting is therefore worth roughly 20p more.

An ordinary home struggles to use its midday peak and exports most of it. A home with a heat pump and an EV does not: the heat pump can make hot water and pre-warm the house at noon, and the car — if it is home during the day — can charge straight off the panels. That converts surplus solar from a 4–15p export into a 26p saving, several times more valuable [20]. In the modelled bill above, a modest 4kW array used this way knocks roughly £450 off the annual energy cost and takes the combined home under £1,300. The same array on a home with no flexible load saves far less, because so much of its output leaves the house for a low export rate. Octopus and others now sell the heat pump, battery, EV charger and solar as one orchestrated system precisely because the parts are worth more together than apart [22].

Add a home battery and the arithmetic shifts again

A home battery turns a heat-pump-and-EV home into a near-self-sufficient one by letting it buy cheap overnight power and spend it across the expensive day. The economics that make a battery worthwhile elsewhere — a wide gap between import and export prices, and large flexible loads — are exactly what a combined home already has. A typical 9.5kWh battery costs about £4,000–£6,000 installed in 2026, with bigger or premium units (a 13.5kWh Tesla Powerwall) running past £12,000 [35][36]. For a home with solar it lifts self-consumption from roughly 40–50% to 70–80%, keeping each generated kWh at its 26p import value instead of a thin export rate [35].

The sharper trick in a HP-and-EV home does not even need solar. On a smart tariff, the battery can fill at the 7p overnight rate and discharge through the 26p day, shaving the baseline and heat-pump load that cannot all be shifted to the small hours. That arbitrage — buy at 7p, avoid buying at 26p — is worth real money in a home that draws 9,100 kWh a year, and it is why installers now quote solar, battery, heat pump and EV charger as one orchestrated package [22]. The catch is payback: a full solar-plus-battery-plus-heat-pump package typically pays back over 9–13 years, so the battery is a comfort-and-resilience purchase with a slow financial return, not a quick win [35]. For most combined homes the tariff switch comes first, the battery much later.

The cold-weather reality

A heat pump is least efficient exactly when a home needs the most heat, so the combined winter bill is the real test — and the smart tariff matters most then. The Electrification of Heat field trial recorded a median coefficient of performance of about 2.44 on cold days, against a full-year SPF nearer 2.8 [10]. In a January cold snap the heat pump both works harder and converts each unit of electricity into less heat, so the heating share of the bill can double over a mild month while the EV's draw stays flat. This is when a household most needs its cheap overnight rate and any stored or pre-heated warmth, and when leaving the system on a flat 26p tariff hurts most.

The practical defences are the same levers, used harder in winter: pre-heat the home's fabric overnight in the cheap window so the pump coasts through the expensive evening peak, run the hot-water cycle off-peak, and let the smart system lean on stored battery or solar where it exists. A well-insulated home with a correctly sized heat pump rides a cold snap on modest extra cost; a poorly-insulated one running the pump flat-out at the day rate sees the worst bill of the year. The winter gap between those two homes is, again, set by insulation, commissioning and tariff — not by the badge on the heat pump.

The grants and policy layer

In the UK a £7,500 grant and 0% VAT cut the heat-pump capital cost sharply, while the picture in the US reversed in 2026 as federal credits expired. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme pays £7,500 toward an air-source heat pump for homeowners in England and Wales replacing a fossil-fuel system, with the installer certified under MCS; the grant rises to £9,000 for oil and LPG homes from 21 July 2026, and the scheme runs to April 2028 [6][7].

Heat pumps also carry 0% VAT until 31 March 2027 [15]. A fully-installed system that lists at £8,000–£14,000 therefore costs most households about £500–£6,500 net [8][32]. The policy has moved volume: MCS passed 250,000 certified UK heat-pump installations, and recorded 51,886 retrofit installs in 2025, up 7% on 2024 [18][19].

The running-cost side of policy is shifting too, slowly in the heat pump's favour. From April 2026 the government scrapped the ECO levy and part-funded the Renewables Obligation, changes Ofgem expects to take roughly £150 off the average bill and to nudge electricity's unit rate down relative to gas [16]. Campaigners including the MCS Foundation argue the real prize is rebalancing the green levies that sit disproportionately on electricity rather than gas — the policy lever most likely to make every heat pump cheaper to run overnight [17]. Until that happens, the 3.6:1 electricity-to-gas ratio is the headwind every UK heat pump fights, and the smart tariff is how households get around it.

The US went the other way in 2026. The federal 25C credit that paid up to $2,000 toward a heat pump expired on 31 December 2025 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the same law that ended the $7,500 EV purchase credit on 30 September 2025 [26][27]. A US household electrifying heat and transport in 2026 has lost both federal sweeteners, though state-administered IRA rebates and the separate geothermal credit (25D, to 2032) survive [26]. On energy cost the US case is milder than the UK's: residential electricity averages about 17.7 cents per kWh [24], and the EIA puts typical household EV-charging energy near 2,363 kWh a year [25], so the combined-load arithmetic holds — but without the grants, the upfront barrier is now higher than it was in 2025.

The practical reality: one supply, two big appliances

Most homes can run a heat pump and an EV charger on a standard single-phase supply, but the two together can approach the limit of a 100A main fuse, so load management matters. A 7kW EV charger and an air-source heat pump on full draw, on top of an electric shower and an oven, can momentarily exceed what a typical domestic supply allows. The mainstream fix in 2026 is not a costly supply upgrade but load-balancing: smart chargers and heat-pump controls that throttle or stagger so the house never trips its main fuse [33]. Octopus's whole-home orchestration and most modern wall chargers do this automatically, which is part of why the integrated-system pitch has caught on.

The other practical point is behavioural, not electrical. The combined home only hits the £1,700 figure if it actually lets the smart system run the car and pre-heat the house overnight, and if the heat pump was commissioned to run at a high SPF rather than as a like-for-like boiler swap. Both are within the household's control and neither costs extra once the kit is in. The single biggest mistake is treating the heat pump like a boiler — running it hot and intermittently — which collapses its efficiency toward the 2.4 floor and pushes heat back up toward the gas price.

What actually moves the combined bill

Four levers move a heat-pump-and-EV bill, and they are all free or cheap relative to the hardware. First, the tariff: moving from the flat price cap to a smart EV tariff is worth roughly £880 a year on the modelled home, the largest single saving and the one most homes miss [1][5]. Second, the heat pump's SPF: the difference between a 2.4 and a 4.0 install is the difference between heat at 11p and heat at 6.5p, set entirely by design and commissioning quality, not brand [9][14]. Third, self-consumed solar, which on a flexible-load home is worth its full import value rather than a thin export rate [20]. Fourth, simple load discipline — charging the car and making hot water in the cheap window — which a smart system does for you once configured.

The honest verdict for 2026 is that a heat pump and an EV are a good combination for a UK household's running costs, but not an automatic one. The technology is proven down to a British winter [10], the grants meaningfully cut the entry cost [6], and the combined energy bill lands well below the gas-and-petrol home — provided the heat pump runs efficiently and the household is on a smart tariff. Skip either and you have spent a lot of capital to land back near where you started on running cost. The savings are real; they are also earned, not given.


Methodology & sourcing

See the structured summary at the top of this article. In brief: unit prices are the published Ofgem price cap for 1 July–30 September 2026 (electricity 26.11p/kWh, gas 7.33p/kWh) [1], the Octopus Intelligent Octopus Go overnight rate (7p) [5] and the Cosy Octopus three-rate structure (≈14.5p/33.3p/51.7p) [3][4]. Heat-pump efficiency uses the real-world median SPF of 2.7–2.8 from UK field data [9][14], not the higher datasheet SCOP. Energy quantities are 11,000 kWh of annual heat demand at SPF 2.8 (≈3,900 kWh electricity) [11], 2,500 kWh for an EV driven 9,000 miles at 3.6 mi/kWh [12], and a 2,700 kWh electricity baseline [13]. Every annual total and per-kWh-of-heat figure is our own calculation from those inputs and is labelled as such; the scenario bills are illustrative models of how a home splits its load across the day, not metered results. SPF, tariff region and load-split are the largest sources of uncertainty and are flagged inline.


Frequently asked questions

Is it cheaper to run a heat pump and an EV than a gas boiler and a petrol car? Yes, for most homes. The modelled UK home falls from about £3,200 a year on gas-and-petrol to roughly £1,700 on a heat pump and EV with a smart tariff — and about £2,580 even on the standard flat tariff [1][5]. The size of the saving depends on the heat pump's efficiency and the tariff, not the hardware brand.

Should a heat-pump-and-EV home use a heat-pump tariff or an EV tariff? Usually the EV tariff. Intelligent Octopus Go's 7p overnight rate plus a day rate near the price cap typically beats Cosy Octopus's three cheap windows for a combined home, because Cosy's ~33p day rate stings the car and baseline load [3][5]. A heat-heavy, poorly-insulated home that needs afternoon heat is the main exception — model your own split.

How much extra electricity does adding a heat pump and an EV use? About 6,400 kWh a year between them — roughly 3,900 kWh for the heat pump and 2,500 kWh for the car — which takes a typical home from around 2,700 kWh to about 9,100 kWh [11][12][13]. Your electricity bill in isolation roughly triples, while gas and petrol spend go to zero.

Is a heat pump actually cheaper to run than gas? Only with efficiency or a cheap tariff behind it. On a flat tariff at a real-world SPF of 2.8, a heat pump makes heat for about 9.3p/kWh against gas at 8.1p — near parity [1][2]. On a 7p overnight rate the same pump makes heat for about 2.5p, a third of the gas price [5].

Can my home's electrics handle both a heat pump and an EV charger? Usually yes, on a standard single-phase supply, but the two together can approach a 100A fuse limit, so load-balancing is used to stagger them. Smart chargers and heat-pump controls throttle automatically so the house never trips its main fuse, avoiding a costly supply upgrade in most cases [33].

Does solar pay back faster on a home with both? Yes. A heat pump and an EV are large flexible loads that can absorb midday solar that would otherwise export at 4–15p, turning each self-consumed kWh into a ~26p saving [20]. On the modelled home a 4kW array knocks roughly £450 off the annual bill and takes it under £1,300.

What grants are available in 2026? In England and Wales the Boiler Upgrade Scheme pays £7,500 toward an air-source heat pump (£9,000 for oil/LPG homes from 21 July 2026), with 0% VAT on the install to March 2027 [6][7][15]. In the US the federal 25C heat-pump credit and the $7,500 EV credit both expired in 2025, leaving state IRA rebates as the main remaining support [26].


About the author

Petra Halvorsen — Energy & E-Mobility Cost Analyst. Petra analyses European retail power markets, heat-pump field performance and electric-vehicle running costs for ChargeCostLab, reconciling regulator data, charging-operator and supplier tariffs and real-world consumption into figures households can act on. She takes no payment from carmakers, charging networks, heat-pump manufacturers or energy suppliers, and every calculation here is reproducible from the cited primary sources.


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  35. Heatable — Home battery storage cost in the UK: 2026 prices, installation & payback. https://heatable.co.uk/solar/advice/battery-storage-costs
  36. How To Go Solar — Home battery storage UK 2026: cost & payback. https://www.howtogosolar.org/home-battery-storage/

© 2026 ChargeCostLab. Independent home-energy and EV running-cost analysis. Figures reflect data available to Q2 2026 and will change as tariffs, the price cap and grants move. This article is informational and not financial advice. Last reviewed 17 June 2026.

Methodology & sourcing

Scope. A single fully-electrified UK home in 2026 — an air-source heat pump for space heating and hot water, plus one electric car driven about 9,000 miles a year — set against the home it replaces (gas boiler plus a petrol car). All prices are gross (including VAT) because that is what a household actually pays. Figures are pounds sterling; a short US section uses the EIA's national figures and is marked.

What is measured vs calculated. Unit prices are sourced and dated: the domestic electricity and gas unit rates from the Ofgem price cap for 1 Jul–30 Sep 2026 (26.11p/kWh electricity, 7.33p/kWh gas) [1]; the smart EV rate from Octopus Intelligent Octopus Go (7p/kWh overnight) [5]; the heat-pump three-rate tariff from Cosy Octopus (≈14.5p off-peak / 33.3p day / 51.7p peak, Apr–Jun 2026) [3][4]; the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant and VAT treatment from gov.uk and the Energy Saving Trust [6][7][8]. Heat-pump efficiency uses the real-world median Seasonal Performance Factor (SPF) of 2.7–2.8 measured in UK field data [9][10], not the higher lab SCOP. Every annual total, per-kWh-of-heat figure and scenario in the tables is our own calculation from those inputs and is labelled as such.

Energy assumptions. Annual space-heating-and-hot-water demand 11,000 kWh for a typical 3-bed home (Energy Saving Trust modelling) [11]; heat-pump SPF 2.8, giving ≈3,900 kWh of electricity for heat. EV energy 2,500 kWh/year (9,000 miles at 3.6 mi/kWh; the European real-world average is 21 ± 4 kWh/100 km per a 342-car study [12], and charging losses are folded into the rate). Baseline household electricity (lights, appliances, cooking) 2,700 kWh, Ofgem's typical-consumption value [13]. Gas-boiler comparison at 90% seasonal efficiency. Petrol comparison at 45 mpg and £1.40/litre.

Flagged uncertainty. SPF is the single biggest swing variable: a poorly-commissioned heat pump can run at 2.4 while a well-designed one exceeds 4.0 [9][14]. Tariff rates vary by region and change with wholesale prices, so the tariff figures are the published April–June 2026 readings, not a fixed national number [4]. The scenario bills are illustrative models of how a household splits its load across the day, not metered results; your own split will move them. US figures are national averages and are corroboration, not a like-for-like of the UK model.